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Elvis in the toast

Also: fresh toast, spurious pattern

Evaluation

A metaphor for finding patterns that aren't there. People see faces in toast; flexible algorithms find patterns in noise. Only fresh data exposes them.

ExampleA model trained on coin-flip labels scores 100% on what it studied and 49% on new data.

Taught inS1RelatedOverfittingGeneralizationS1(after Kozyrkov)